重温经典:聪明的投资者 | 专栏

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重温经典:聪明的投资者

特别感谢公众号:美国投资与财富管理 

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本杰明·格雷厄姆是价值投资的教父,他写的“聪明的投资者”一书一直是价值投资者的圣经。巴菲特将其称为“历史上关于投资的最佳著作”。 前几天重读这本经典,感觉仍然受益匪浅。现节选其中比较精髓的部分,和大家分享。中英文对照,可以自取所需。

 

虽然选了又选,还是有些长。尽量剔除了技术含量稍高的内容,但仍然不乏非常实用的技巧,包括挑选股票的原则。



我们先看下巴菲特在书中引言里的一句话

 

To invest successfully over a lifetime does not require a stratospheric IQ, unusual business insights, or inside information.  What’s needed is a sound intellectual framework for making decisions and the ability to keep emotions from corroding the framework.

 

要想在一生中有成功的投资,并不需要顶级的智商,超凡的商业头脑或内部消息,而是一个稳妥的知识体系作为决策的基础,并且有能力控制自己的情绪,使其不对这个体系造成破坏。

 

现在来读一读格雷厄姆的话。


| 关于投资和投机


An investment operation is one,which, upon thorough analysis promises safety of principal and an adequate return.  Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative

 

投资是以深入分析为基础,确保本金的安全,并获得适当的回报,不满足这些要求的业务就是投机。

 

Speculation is always fascinating, and it can be a lot of fun while you are ahead of the game.  If you want to try your luck at it, put aside a portion – the smaller the better – of your capital in a separate fund for this purpose.

 

投资总是很刺激,尤其当你是赌场上的赢家的时候,你会觉得很有意思。如果你想试试运气,不妨拿出一部分资金- 越少越好-单独为这个目的开一个账户。

 

To enjoy a reasonable chance for continued better than average results, the investor must follow policies which are (1) inherently sound and promising, and (2) not popular on Wall Street. 

 

要想持续去取得超出一般水平的投资收益,投资者必须追随这样的机会:(1)本身是理性并有前景的,(2)在华尔街不受欢迎



| 关于投资本身的建议


The future itself can be approached in two different ways, which may be called the way of prediction (or projection) and the way of protection…… Those who emphasize prediction will endeavor to anticipate fairly accurately just what the company will accomplish in future years…… By contract, those who emphasize protection are always especially concerned with the price of the issues at the time of study…… therefore, it is not so necessary for them to be enthusiastic over the company’s long-run prospects as it is to be reasonably confident that the enterprise will get along…… The first, or predictive, approach could also be called the qualitative approach……  The second, or protective, approach may be called the quantitative or statistical approach…… In our own attitude and professional work we were always committed to the quantitative approach.

 

对待未来的方法有两个: 一个是预测法,一个是保护法…… 那些重视预测的人,总是尽力很准确地预言一个企业在将来会取得什么成就…… 相反,那些重视保护的人,总是更关心在做研究时股票的价格…… 所以,他们不必太关注企业的长期前景,只要它能够继续经营下去…… 第一种,预测法,可以被称作是定性法…… 第二种,保护法,可以被称作是定量法…… 从我们自身的态度和本职工作上来说,我们始终致力于定量法的运用。

 

A creditable, if unspectacular, result can be achieved by the lay investor with a minimum of effort and capability; but to improve this easily attainable standard requires much application and more than a trace of wisdom.  If you merely try to bring just a little extra knowledge and cleverness to bear upon your investment program, instead of realizing a little better than normal results, you may well find that you have done worse.

 

普通投资者只需付出很小的努力和具备很小的能力,就可以取得一种可靠(虽然并不壮观)的成果;但是,要想提高这一可轻易可以取得的成果,需要付出大量的努力和非同小可的智慧。如果你只想为你的投资计划付出一点额外的知识和智慧,却想取得大大超出一般的投资成果,你很可能会发现自己陷入一种更糟糕的境地。


| 关于挑选投资产业


Obvious prospects for physical growth in a business do not translate into obvious profits for investors.

 

某一行业显而易见的业务增长前景,并不一定会为投资者带来显而易见的利润。

 

The experts do not have dependable ways of selecting and concentrating on the most promising companies in the most promising industries.

 

即使是专家,也没有什么可靠的方法,能使其挑出前景光明的行业中最有前途的公司。

 

Our own observation, however, leads us to minimize somewhat the practical value of most of the industry studies that are made available to investors…… Rarely does one find a brokerage-house study that points out, with a convincing array of facts, that a popular industry is heading for a fall or that an unpopular one is due to prosper.

 

我们通过自身观察认为,投资者可以看到的大多数的行业报告的实际价值并不大…… 很难发现某经纪公司会以一系列令人信服的事实告诉人们,某个受欢迎的行业即将崩溃,或者是某个不受欢迎的行业即将出现繁荣。


| 关于挑选和购买股票的一些基本原则


We shall suggest as one of our chief requirements here that our readers limit themselves to issues selling not far above their tangible-asset value.

 

我们建议我们的读者,只买那些价格不高于其有形资产价值太多的股票,并以此作为我们的第一项要求。

 

Concentrate on issues selling at a reasonably close approximation to their tangible-asset value – say, at not more than one-third above that figure.

 

把注意力集中在那些价格接近于公司有形资产的股票, 比如,高于有形资产不超过三分之一。

 

(笔者注释:有形资产(也称净资产,或者账面价值)的计算:从资产负债表上的股东权益里减去所有的“软”资产:包括商誉,商标,和其它无形资产)

 

The investor should demand, in addition, a satisfactory ratio of earnings to price, a sufficiently strong financial position, and the prospect that its earnings will at least be maintained over the years.

 

除此之外,投资者还必须要求: 合理的市盈率,稳固的财务,以及至少以后几年利润不会下降。

 

Our one recommendation is that all investors should be wary of new issues – which means, simply, that these should be subjected to careful exanimation and unusually severe tests before they are purchased.

 

我们的建议是,投资者应当对新发行的证券采取审慎的态度,意思很简单,就是要在下单前,对其进行仔细的评估和非寻常的严格测试。

 

On the whole it may be better for the investor to do his stock buying whenever he has money to put in stocks, EXCEPT, when the general market level is much higher than can be justified by well-established standards of value.

 

总的来说,投资者投资股票较好的方法是:只要有钱,就去买。除非, 整个市场的价格比起常用的价值标准要高出很多。

 

No outstanding rewards came from diversified investment in growth companies as compared with that in common stocks generally.

 

与一般的普通股投资相比,对成长型股票的分散化的投资并不能带来优异的回报。

 

He should never buy a stock BECAUSE it has gone up or sell one BECAUSE it has gone down.

 

投资者千万不要仅仅因为股价上涨而去购买,或是仅仅因为股价下跌而去抛售。


| 关于投资者的分类


格雷厄姆把投资者分作两类:defensive (passive) 和 enterprising (active): 防御型(被动型)和进取型(主动型)。并对这两种类型的投资者有不同的建议。他这样解释:

 

The defensive (or passive) investor will place his chief emphasis on the avoidance of serious mistakes or losses.  His second aim will be free from effort, annoyance, and the need for making frequent decisions.  The determining trait of the enterprising (or active, or aggressive) investor is his willingness to devote time and care to the selection of securities that are both sound and more attractive than the average.

 

防御型(或被动型)投资者的首要目的是避免重大错误或损失,其次是不需要付出太多的努力,承受很多的烦恼, 经常做出决策。而进取型(主动型或激进型)投资者的主要特点是,他们愿意为挑选出色的股票去付出努力,花费时间,以获取超出平均水平的回报。

 

(笔者注释: 简单说,防御型投资者在做出资产配置,资产组合的的决定之后不需要花太大精力去做改变,可以获得平常水平,但让人满意的回报。进取型则需花费大量的精力去做专业的分析,评估,是为了获取高出平常水平的回报。 格雷厄姆认为大部分投资人都应该将自己归类为防御型)。

 

The aggressive investor must have a considerable knowledge of security values – enough, in fact, to warrant viewing his security operations as equivalent to a business enterprise.  There is no room in this philosophy for a middle ground, or a series of gradations, between the passive and aggressive status.  Many, perhaps most, investors seek to place themselves in such an intermediate category; in our opinion that is a compromise that is more likely to produce a disappointment than achievement.

 

积极投资者必须拥有大量专业的证券估价知识,才能把自己的投资看成是一种事业。被动和主动投资之间并不存在一系列的中间过渡。很多,应该是绝大多数投资者,都想把自己置身于一个中间地位。但我们认为,这种想法带来的不是收获,而是失望。

 

It follows from this reasoning that the majority of security owner should elect the defensive classification.  They do not have the time, or the determination, or the mental equipment to embark upon investing as quasi-basis.    They should therefore be satisfied with the excellent return now obtainable from a defensive portfolio (and with even less), and they should stoutly resist that recurrent temptation to increase this return by deviating into other paths. 

 

根据这一推论,大多数投资人都应该选择成为防御型被动投资者。他们没有时间,决断力和精力来像经营企业那样从事投资活动。因此,他们应该满足于现在从防御型证券组合获得的优越回报(甚至是较低的回报),应该坚决抵制不断出现的诱惑:为了增加回报而偏离到其它道路上的诱惑。


| 关于防御型投资者的证券资产组合


He should divide his funds between high-grade bonds and high-grade common stocks.  We have suggested as a fundamental guiding rule that the investor should never have less than 25% or more than 75% of his funds in common stocks, with a consequent inverse range of between 75% and 25% in bonds.

 

他应当将资金分散投资于高等级的债券和高等级的普通股。作为一项基本的指导原则,我们建议这种投资者投资于股票的资金不少于资金总额的25%, 且不高于75%; 与此相应,其债券投资的比例则应在75%和25%之间。

 

Thus this matter of choosing the “best” stocks is at bottom a highly controversial one.  Our advice to the defensive investor is that let it alone.  Let him emphasize diversification more than individual selection.

 

从根本上说,选择“最好”的股票是个相当有争议的事情。我们对防御型投资者的建议是,不要去做这件事情。股票的分散多元化比挑选个股更为有用。


如果防御型投资者一定要自己挑选股票,可参选以下七个标准:


1.  Adequate size of the enterprise: 适当的企业规模

 

Let us use round amounts: not less than $100 million of annual sales or an industrial company and, not less than $50 million of total assets for a public utility.

 

让我们给出大致的数额:比如,就工业企业而言,年销售额不低于1亿美元;就公用事业企业而言,总资产不低于5000万美元。

 

2.  A sufficiently strong financial condition: 足够强健的财务状况

 

For industrial companies current assets should be at least twice currently liabilities……long term debt should not exceed the net current assets.  For public utilities the debt should not exceed twice the stock equity (at book value).

 

就工业企业而言,流动资产应该至少是流动负债的两倍。同时,长期债务不应该超过流动资产净额。就公用事业企业而言,负债不应该超过股权(账面值)的两倍。

 

3.  Earnings stability: 稳定的利润

 

Some earnings for the common stock in each of the past ten years.

 

普通股在过去10年中每年都有利润。

 

4.  Dividend record: 股息纪录

 

Uninterrupted payments for at least the past 20 years.

 

至少20年不间断支付股息。

 

5.  Earnings growth: 利润增长

 

A minimum increase of at least one-third per-share earnings in the past ten years using three-year averages at the beginning and end.

 

过去10年内,每股利润的增长至少要达到三分之一。(期初和期末使用三年平均数)。

 

6.  Moderate price/earnings ratio:适度的市盈率

 

Current price should not be more than 15 times average earnings of the past three years.

 

当期股价不应该高于过去3年平均利润的15倍。

 

7.  Moderate ratio of price to assets: 适度的股价资产比

 

Current price should not be more than 11/2 times the book value last reported.  However, a multiplier of earnings below 15 could justify a correspondingly higher multiplier of assets.  As a rule of thumb we suggest that the product of the multiplier times the ratio of price to book value should not exceed 22.5.

 

当期股价比不应该超过最新资产账面价值的1.5倍。但是,当市盈率低于15倍时,股价对于资产的比率可以相对高一些。作为一个基本原则,我们建议,市盈率和估计于资产比率的乘积不高于22.5.

 

(笔者注释: 比如,一个市盈率只有9的股票,即便它的股价于账面资产价值的比率是2.5, 也可以考虑。9 * 2.5 = 22.5)

 

(笔者注释:格雷厄姆建议,除了自己组建投资组合,防御型投资者还可以购买合适的投资基金,或者寻求投资咨询公司的帮助)


| 关于防御型投资者投资普通股的四个原则


1.Adequate but not excessive diversification.   This might mean a minimum of ten different issues and a maximum of about thirty.

 

适度但不过分的分散化。持股数应该在10和30之间。

 

2.Companies should be large, prominent, and conservatively financed.

 

公司应该大型,知名,并且财务上稳健保守。

 

3.Companies should have a long record of continuous dividend payments.

 

公司应该有长期持续支付股息的历史。

 

4.The limit (price paid) be set at 25 times such average earnings (past seven years), and not more than 20 times those of the last twelve-month period.

 

市盈率应该控制在过去7年盈利的25倍之内,过去1年的20倍之内。

 

| 关于进取型投资者可以“积极投资”的领域


1.The relatively unpopular large company: 不太受欢迎的大公司

 

They key requirement here is that the enterprising investor concentrate on the larger companies that are going through a period of unpopularity.

 

关键是要关注那些在一段时间内不受欢迎的大公司。

 

2.Purchase of bargain issues: 购买廉价证券

 

We define a bargain issue as one which, on the basis of facts established by analysis, appears to be worth considerably more than it is selling for…… To be as concrete as possible, let us suggest that an issue is not a true “bargain” unless the indicated value is at least 50% more than the price.

 

我们对廉价的定义是:根据确凿的分析,证券的价值要大大高于其价格…… 更具体一些,我们认为真正廉价的证券的价值要比价格高出至少50%。

 

Two major sources of undervaluation: (1) currently disappointing results and (2) protracted neglect or unpopularity.

 

价格被低估有两个主要原因: (1) 当前令人失望的业绩 (2) 长期被忽略。

 

3.Special situations, or “workouts”: 一些特殊情况

 

这里,格雷厄姆是指那些利用并购,破产,企业重组等情况进行的投资。但他说:“The exploitation of special situations is a technical branch of investment which requires a somewhat unusual mentality and equipment”.  ( 对特殊情况的利用是一种投资技巧,对智力和操作都有这不同寻常的要求),并且认为只有很少数的人应该去尝试。


| 关于安全边际


In the ordinary common stock, bought for investment under normal conditions, the margin of safety lies in an expected earning powerconsiderably above the going rate for bonds.

 

就一般普通股而言,它的安全边际表现在预期的盈利能力大大高于其债券现有的利率。

 

Over a ten-year period the typical excess of stock earning power over bond interest may aggregate 50% of the price paid.  This figure is sufficient to provide a very real margin of safety, which, under favorable conditions, will prevent or minimize a loss.  If such a margin is present in each of the diversified list of twenty or more stocks, the probability of a favorable result under “fairly normal conditions” becomes very large.

 

在一个10年的区间,高于债券利率的股票盈利,一般会达到股票价格的50%。 这一数字足以提供非常可靠的安全边际。在不错的市场条件下,这一安全边际可以防止或降低亏损。如果在你分散化投资的20或更多股票中,每一只股票都能达到这样的安全边际,那在正常情况下,你获利的概率将非常大。

 

Observation over many years has taught us that the chief losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favorable business conditions.

 

多年的观察告诉我们,投资者的主要亏损来自在市场不错的时候购买低质股票。

 

The margin-of-safety idea becomes much more evident when we apply it to the filed of undervalued or bargain securities.  We have here, by definition, a favorable difference between price on the one hand and indicated or appraised value on the other.  That difference is the safety margin.  It is available for absorbing the effect of miscalculations or worse than average luck…… But the field of undervalued issues is drawn from the many concerns – perhaps a majority of the total – for which the future appears neither distinctly promising nor distinctly unpromising.  If these are bought on a bargain basis, even a moderate decline in the earning power need not prevent the investment from showing satisfactory results.  The margin of safety will then have served its proper purpose.

 

对于被低估或廉价证券, 安全边际这个概念的应用更为明显。我们的定义是,证券的市场价格高于证券评估价格的区间就是安全边际。它可以用来吸收计算失误或者非常不运气时的后果…… 被低估的证券都来自于这样的企业 - 应该是大多数 - 对这些企业来说,未来既不是非常充满希望或者是非常不充满希望。 如果能够以足够低的价格购买到这些股票,即便是盈利水平在一定程度上有所下降,也仍然会有令人满意的投资结果。这样安全边际就发挥了其应有的作用。


| 关于投资分散化


That (diversification) is the simple basis of the insurance-underwriting business.

 

分散化是保险业最基础的理论。

 

Diversification is an established tenet of conservative investment.

 

分散化是稳健投资长期坚守的信条。

 

我们觉得用格雷厄姆下面的这句话作为总结很合适:

 

To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks.

 

获得令人满意的投资结果其实比很多人想象得要容易,但要获得超常的结果则比人们想象的要难。


移投路专栏:

--Flavia:

Crosper公司合伙人。曾帮助客户对近百个美国投资项目进行审阅和尽职调查。2000年移居美国,在美国一上市公司任职,先后在美国,法国和中国从事金融分析,战略管理与供应链管理。移居美国前在中国人民银行从事金融和经济分析。本科主攻英美文学和金融,后以优等生身份毕业于美国芝加哥大学商学院,主攻金融和战略管理,持有CFA 和CPWA认证。微信号:美国投资与财富管理

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